by Gene Wunderlich
Looking back on it, in June of 2009 there were 55 homes sold in Temecula, 60 in Murrieta, 51 in Lake Elsinore and just 9 in Wildomar. Then the government stepped in with the 1st Time Homebuyer Program and by June of 2010, the last month to close on a qualifying home, 226 homes were sold in Temecula, 214 in Murrieta, 137 in Lake Elsinore and 37 in Wildomar. That’s a pretty prodigious gain in one year – 200% – 300%!
Didn’t quite hold the pace in 2011 when 186 homes sold in Temecula, 200 in Murrieta, 118 in Lake Elsinore and 38 in Wildomar. For the region there’s about an 8% fall-off year-over-year with Murrieta & Temecula dropping about 15%. But if you looked at it as our first post—bust semi-honest market year, it was still pretty strong. Some markets around the country literally fell off a cliff when the housing incentives ended and haven’t begun to bounce back yet.
2012’s starting off strong as well. Across the region, June sales were up 4% over the previous year (730/757) , up 15% in Temecula (186/218), up 14% in Menifee (159/184), but down 4% in Murrieta (200/192).
Following a good 1st quarter, 2nd quarter for the region kicked up an additional 4% (2,114/2,212) lead by Menifee, which posted a 27% increase quarter over quarter (388/535), Temecula with a 24% gain (475/602) and Murrieta with a 17% bump (496/600). 1st half sales were up 9% over 1st half 2011 ((3,675/4,033) and even up 3% over our previous bellwether year in 2010 (3,929/4,033). Sales were up 36% from 1st half 2009 (2,565/4,033).
June marked the 4th consecutive month with Temecula’s median price over $300,000. It was also the first time since April 2008 that Murrieta’s median price has ventured above the $300,000 mark. There’s good news on median prices as well. Nothing earth shattering, mind you, but positive. For the region we are up 5% since 2009 ($229,505/$241,798). Temecula has posted a 1st half price increase in each of the past four years ($282,077/$291,390/$297,122/$304.011) totaling 7%. Murrieta is up 3% since 2009 ($265,670/$272,493).
If you live in Wildomar your home is worth $1,250 more than it was in 2009. The product mix continues to shift. 4 years ago 92% of our market was distressed homes with most of those being bank-owned. Just 8% could be considered standard sales, the old normal. Today, it’s bank-owned properties that make up 8% of our active market and short-sales have dropped from 60+% to just 24%. Standard sales have made up just over 50% of our active market for the previous 2 months. In June they were 2/3rd of the active market and nearly half the closed sales were standard.
Inventory is down 62% since February (2,240/862) and down another 11% from last month (974/862). Last month, as a region, we sold 2.6 homes for every new home listed (757/286). Our inventory stands at just 1 precarious month across most of the region. Temecula sold 3 homes for every new listing (218/73), Murrieta 2.6 (192/74), Lake Elsinore 2.8 (93/33) while Canyon Lake brought up the rear only selling 1.9 homes for every new one (34/18). You can’t keep that up for long before you run out of homes. Or prices start going up.
All of this information, plus the charts and graphs supporting my half-baked notions, can be found in the July Realtor Report, available at Slideshare.net/genewunderlich/7-realtor-report.
http://www.slideshare.net/genewunderlich/7-realtor-report