Welcome to another edition of the REALTOR® Report! It’s officially the holiday season (after Thanksgiving), and we are quickly approaching the end of 2023. The real estate market has experienced many challenges and successes this year, and I hope you have received some of those successes.
When you look at this month’s data and statistics, November was a strange month. As a region, we saw quite a few decreases, including the lowest sales volume since February 2023. However, all but two of our cities saw increases in their year-over-year median sales price. Furthermore, the two cities that had decreases saw their median price drop by less than 1%. So, I would say that’s a pretty solid month all around! I will note that the drastic increase in Canyon Lake was partly due to an anomaly from November 2022 and is not the typical year-over-year growth. As always, I am happy to discuss anything included in this report in further detail if you have any questions.
Let’s take a closer look at the numbers for our region from November 2023.
The median home price in Southwest Riverside County was relatively flat compared to the previous month ($583,2800/$585,000) and improved by 4% from one year ago ($561,000). Comparing the median price to where it was 2 years ago, it has increased by 6.1% when the median price was $550,000. Unsold inventory remains right around 4 months, getting closer to the 6 months that is considered a healthy market. The median time on the market increased again to 20 days, is down from 31 days last year but up considerably from 2 years ago when it was just 11 days. Unit sales decreased 15% from last month and are down 3% from last year. Unsold inventory decreased from the previous month by 5%, and it remains significantly down from last year, with a decrease of 29%. Median prices expanded the range in price in our local cities, with a total median price variance from -0.4% to 11.3%. (I did not include Canyon Lake’s increase of 73.7% for the reason mentioned above).
There isn’t much to report on the legislative side of things. We avoided another government shutdown in November and will deal with another extension in early 2024. Also, election season is in full swing, with an early primary election quickly approaching in March. I have already been asked who we will and won’t be supporting, but we are far from making those decisions. For now, I will encourage you to reach out and get to know the candidates that are running. Ask them the questions that matter most to you, and take note of their availability and communication skills.
Last month, the National Association of REALTORS® met for their annual expo and business meetings. One of my favorite presentations is from Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist for NAR. He shared many of the thoughts and facts he’s mentioned all year. Some highlights include:
• high-interest rates remain a challenge for home affordability and are a significant contributor to low sales volume
•30 Year Mortgage and Fed Funds Rate has likely peaked
•Unit sales will most likely, if not already, hit bottom at the end of 2023 before an upturn in 2024
I am also including his two slides with his forecast for interest rates and sales at the end of my report.
As 2023 winds down, I hope you can enjoy a little downtime with your friends, family, and loved ones to reflect on the past year and prepare for a busy 2024.
I hope I have covered everything that affects you and your business. Please let me know if I left anything out or if you need anything explained further.
If you’d like a copy of my entire report including the detailed slides, or to be added to the distribution list, please email me at Adam@srcar.org.
As always, I am available if you have any questions about the report. Until next month…
Adam A. Ruiz
Government Affairs Director
Southwest Riverside County Association of REALTORs®
